Oscars 2007: What Should Win vs. What Will Win
by Brian Eggert
1/30/2007
I don’t know why I get excited for the Oscars every year; rarely are the winners those I think should win. Each year the show ends and I think, What a disappointment. The major awards: Best Director, Best Picture, Best Original or Adapted Screenplay—these awards are seldom given to the remembered films. Upsets in the past few years have proven that voters have no sense of film history, rather just a feeling of “what’s hot.”
To be an Oscar winner, even if the voting process is bullshit, means something. What it means, I don't know... perhaps it's recognition from a prestigious institution. It means nothing, really. Regardless, I always get hopeful for my favorite actors and directors, if only so that in history books it might say, "Oscar winner so-and-so" to add that certain ersatz credibility, which is inherent to the Academy Award winner.
How this institution stays prestigious, after all the past flub-ups, is beyond me. 2005, the biggest upset year in decades, saw Clint Eastwood and his Million Dollar Baby take Best Director and Best Picture over Martin Scorsese and his masterpiece The Aviator. A totally underappreciated film, The Aviator, its director, and its lead performance by Leonardo DiCaprio were snubbed. In retrospect, Million Dollar Baby is infrequently discussed among film critics and historians, while The Aviator is remembered and will continue to be a much talked about film by the world’s greatest living director.
Analysts and critics are saying this is Marty’s year, as The Departed has generally received better reviews and audience response than any other of the nominated films or directors; but then again, they said that in 2005 too. Nominated six times for Best Director (for the films Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, Goodfellas, Gangs of New York, The Aviator, and now The Departed), some say Marty is destined to join a list of the all-time greatest filmmakers to never win an Oscar for directing—a list that includes Alfred Hitchcock, Akira Kurosawa, and Orson Welles, all of whom received “Honorary Awards” from the Academy for lifetime achievements. Going up once again against Clint Eastwood, the rematch of Scorsese vs. Eastwood is the title bout of the new century.
In a way, I hope Scorsese will be one of those masters never to be honored for a specific film, but instead recognized for his career. On the other hand, he may end up similar to John Ford, Steven Spielberg, and several others to win more than one statue, solidifying his status. Either way, The Departed is my personal favorite this year and it’s likely to be remembered years down the road as a modern classic, regardless of a win or not.
As for the specific nominations, I left a few of the least popular categories off of the list below. I didn’t get a chance to see every documentary, short or feature length, animated or not. The categories below are what I consider the important few. Noted are what I think WILL win based on how I think voters are leaning, what I think SHOULD will win based on my personal preference, and then a few comments about the category. Some selections, I felt, forgot important people or films from throughout the year, and I made sure to note it below:
Best Picture:
*THE DEPARTED (SHOULD and WILL win)
BABEL
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
THE QUEEN
For Best Picture, The Departed seems the likely and rightful candidate, but some say Babel or Letters from Iwo Jima are possible winners. Babel has the most chance behind The Departed, as it won the Best Picture award at the Golden Globes this year. But given The Departed’s grand reception from critics and its 100+ million box office draw, here’s hoping Scorsese’s newest masterpiece is acknowledged with a statue of a naked golden man.
Some are now saying Little Miss Sunshine has a good chance of winning. It’s achieved a sympathetic underdog status and the film’s recent award for Best Emsemble Cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards definitely makes that a possibility. It’s one thing to root for the underdog; it’s another to unjustifiably vote for a film that simply isn’t the best film of the year.
Actor in a Leading Role:
*Forest Whitaker, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND (SHOULD and WILL win)
Peter O'Toole, VENUS
Will Smith, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Leonardo DiCaprio, BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling, HALF NELSON
There's a major name, or should I say film, missing here: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Departed. At the Golden Globes, they gave him a double nomination for both The Departed and Blood Diamond. The Academy chose to grant him a nomination only for Diamond, which is so the wrong choice it’s almost immoral. DiCaprio gave an Oscar-deserving performance for Scorsese, just as he did in The Aviator. This guy needs to be recognized for his accomplishments; he got through the teenage girl posterboy phase and matured into an actor of the highest caliber. It’s a shame the Academy made this mistake.
Since I didn't care too much for Blood Diamond, the award should probably go to Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland (a second choice would be Peter O'Toole, because man, that guy can act!).
Actress in a Leading Role:
*Helen Mirren, THE QUEEN (WILL win)
Judi Dench, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
*Kate Winslet, LITTLE CHILDREN (SHOULD win)
Penelope Cruz, VOLVER
Meryl Street, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
The lack of nominations for Little Children is disgusting; I don’t understand how it was left out of Best Picture noms. Regardless, at least Kate Winslet’s sympathetic and passionate performance was nominated. Now her fifth nomination, how many times are they going to pass her up? As much as love Dench and Mirren, it’s time for the old Brits to pass the torch to the, ahem, more youthful ones. Expect to see Mirren getting the Oscar and a disappointed, more-derving Kate Winslet in the audience showing a polite smile.
Best Director:
*Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED (SHOULD and WILL win)
Paul Greengrass, UNITED 93
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, BABEL
Stephen Frears, THE QUEEN
Clint Eastwood, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
This is a no-brainer. Scorsese deserves this, not only for his modern-masterpiece of a film, but for a career of masterpieces over the last thirty years. Clint Eastwood has his three Oscars; does he need another one? And the other three candidates, if any of them win I’ll be sick. Scorsese or bust.
Actor in a Supporting Role:
*Eddie Murphy, DREAMGIRLS (WILL win)
Alan Arkin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Mark Wahlberg, THE DEPARTED
Djimon Hounsou, BLOOD DIAMOND
*Jackie Earle Haley, LITTLE CHILDREN (SHOULD win)
Interesting category. Four of the five candidates could win and I’d be content. Little Children’s Jackie Earle Haley gave a performance that’s still under my skin, slithering around; Eddie Murphy’s performance was more unexpected than Oscar worthy; Wahlberg was both funny and vicious, though he’s was basically the same character in Four Brothers; and Alan Arkin made me laugh more than any other character this year. I don’t understand the Hounsou nomination: his performance consisted of mostly screaming and general overacting.
Where are Jack Nicholson and Matt Damon for The Departed? Where is Michael Caine for Children of Men? Michael Sheen for The Queen? Kazunari Ninomiya for Letters from Iwo Jima? There were more worthy supporting actors last year year than Hounsou…
Actress in a Supporting Role:
*Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS (WILL win)
Adriana Barraza, BABEL
Rinko Kinkuchi, BABEL
Abigail Breslin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
*Cate Blanchett, NOTES ON A SCANDAL (SHOULD win)
What’s the world coming to when the sure-fire win is likely to go to an ex-American Idol star? I’ll tell you: the apocalypse.
Jennifer Hudson will be a forgotten star in a year or two, while actresses like Cate Blanchett will go on for years. Blanchett, who is exceptional in everything she does, has the adaptability to play nearly any role; Hudson can sing—that’s all. I ask you, who deserves the Oscar, a pop star or one of the best actresses of our time? Hmmm…
Best Original Screenplay:
*THE QUEEN (WILL win)
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
*PAN’S LABYRINTH (SHOULD win)
The most original screenplay is clearly Pan’s Labyrinth, but chances are voters won’t appreciate its violent and fantastic undertones. The Queen is likely to take the statue; that, or maybe Babel for its creative formal approach to storytelling.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
*THE DEPARTED (SHOULD and WILL win)
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
BORAT
CHILDREN OF MEN
There are some great selections in this category. The lock is The Departed, though if Little Children, Notes on a Scandal, or Children of Men were acknowledged, I wouldn’t gripe. All contained innovative writing, but The Departed used the original film only as a template and then worked from there… the result was a totally original picture, regardless if it was based on previous material or not.
Best Original Score:
*BABEL (WILL win)
THE GOOD GERMAN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
*PAN'S LABYRINTH (SHOULD win)
THE QUEEN
I’m still humming the memorable score from Pan’s Labyrinth, a creepy yet childlike melody. Although, I think voters will go for the versatile score for Babel, as it required music from three culture’s to comprise.
Best Animated Film:
HAPPY FEET
*CARS (SHOULD win)
*MONSTER HOUSE (WILL win)
I didn’t really care for any of these films, but Cars had the best animation and I’m a big Pixar fan. Audiences and critics apparently liked Monster House more…
But where is A Scanner Darkly? Completely original for animated features, Darkly is unlike anything, animated or otherwise, audiences have ever seen. Do voters consider animation a category only for children’s movies? If so, that’s an irresponsible attitude, as the medium allows film to rise above demographic.
Best Foreign Film:
*PAN'S LABYRINTH (SHOULD and WILL win)
AFTER THE WEDDING
WATER
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGENES)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
Pan’s Labyrinth is the only film in this category to reach the top ten at the box office; it’s on over 125 critics’ top 10 lists for 2006 (including mine); and considering few people have seen the other four films, there’s nothing preventing Guillermo del Toro from taking home an Oscar for Best Foreign Film.
Best Art Direction:
*PAN'S LABYRINTH (SHOULD and WILL win)
DREAMGIRLS
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN’S CHEST
THE GOOD SHEPHERD
THE PRESTIGE
The only film that even comes close to Pan’s Labyrinth for art direction is The Prestige; the others don’t contain the subtle artistry the category requires. Look at Pan’s dark fantasy elements and then compare those to the period costumes and architecture in the same movie. It's hard to imagine the Academy not picking Del Toro’s film. No other nominated picture has the same range.
Best Cinematography:
*CHILDREN OF MEN (SHOULD and WILL win)
THE PRESTIGE
THE ILLUSIONIST
THE BLACK DAHLIA
PAN'S LABYRINTH
While there’s some great competition in this category, nearly every review for Children of Men goes out of its way to mention the impressive, tour de force cinematography. On par with a grandiose epic, the ever-present camera deserves recognition for making extended, well orchestrated tracking shots look random.
Best Costume Design:
*DREAMGIRLS (WILL win)
*MARIE ANTOINETTE (SHOULD win)
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
THE QUEEN
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
This isn’t a category I’m fanatical about, as I don’t really care for any of the films nominated. Although Marie Antoinette’s elaborate French costumes deserve recognition, Dreamgirls will probably win, as people are apparently upset it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture.
Best Film Editing:
BABEL
*THE DEPARTED (SHOULD and WILL win)
UNITED 93
CHILDREN OF MEN
BLOOD DIAMOND
Part of Scorsese’s genius, aside from the obvious reasons, is his use of editor Thelma Schoonmaker on nearly every film in his career. Her rapid-fire control adds an agile pace to Scorsese’s work and has won her Oscars for both The Aviator and Raging Bull. The Departed is likely to earn her a third award.
Best Makeup:
*PAN'S LABYRINTH (SHOULD and WILL win)
APOCALYPTO
CLICK
What the hell is Click doing in this category?! It doesn’t have a chance…
Best Sound Editing:
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
*LETTERS FROM IWON JIMA (SHOULD and WILL win)
One of the most impressive looking and sounding war movies in some time, I’m sure the academy will see Clint Eastwood’s Japanese look at Iwo Jima deserving of an award. I’m not a sound expert, however, so this guess is about as guessy and guesses get.
Best Sound Mixing:
*DREAMGIRLS (WILL win)
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
*BLOOD DIAMOND (SHOULD win)
APOCALYPTO
Again, I’m not a sound aficionado, but Blood Diamond’s action scenes mixed gunfire, crowds, vehicles, voices, explosions, screams, and so on. But I have a suspicion that voters will choose Dreamgirls for its ability to make disco music sound like contemporary pop music.
Best Visual Effects:
POSEIDON
*PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (SHOULD and WILL win)
SUPERMAN RETURNS
Davey Jones, probably the most natural looking CGI character since The Lord of the Rings’ s Gollum, will have the souls of all those not voting for Pirates.
As for the results, we'll find out February 25th...